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FRAX Calculation Tool

Eamenard
0 Recommendations

For those of you who would like to calculate the risk of hip fracture
in the next 10 years, you might want to visit the website:www.shef.ac.uk/FRAX/
click on "Calculation" , select nationality, and follow the instructions.
It will give you the probablity of a hip fracture for the next 10 years. It asks for
the femur T or Z score as a refinement but thhis is not necessary. I have a femur
T score of -2.7 and got a low probability number which made me feel better.
Give it a try. Things may be better than you think (or worse as the case may be).

Explore topics in this discussion:

Exercise Pain Forteo Fractures Reclast

12 replies

Poet-Lady

If you enter your data, you get two results. One is for
a major osteoporoic and one is for a hip fracture. If the
value for major osteoporic is 7.1, does this mean you have a 7.1 percent chance of a fracture in the next ten years?

Eamenard

Dear Poet-Lady

Yes, that's what it means. If you look at the probability of a femur fracture, it will be much lower. Usually hip(femur) fracture is the worst kind as it lays you up awhile. The major osteoporic includes the femur, shoulder, forearm, and spine. Spime fractures aren'tt especially attractive either as my mother got those and they were very painful. So what the 7.1% tells you is that of 100 people of your age, lifestyle, DEXA scan, etc only 7 people will have an osteo fracture. I would say that's not too bad-at least from my perspective.
Hope you think so too.

Now you have to balance this against what you may face now and in the future with the meds that are now on the market and what is known and unknown about them.
The biophosphates save your old aging bone. Is this a good idea? High bone density(DEXA scan) does not equal low fracturability either. Much more has to be learned so I would proceed with caution.
I would correct any secondary problems and then go to a healthy lifestyle. Don't overdose on calcium or all those other vitamins either. More isn't necessarily better. "Moderation in all things"
Good luck and proceed slowly. Bones are not ruined in a month or a year.

KathyS

My major was 43
Hip frac was 24

so out of a 100 I have a 43% chance? and 24% chance out of a 100? there were no decimals in mine..

Eamenard

Dear KathyS

Well, Kathy, that says 43 out of a 100 will have a hip, spine, forearm, or shoulder fracture in the next 10 years. The 100 people would have entered the same data as you as to gender, DEXA score, etc. Of that 100, 24 will have had a hip fracture leaving 19 people with a spine, shoulder, or forearm fracture.

From a positive side, you have a 53% chance of not having a fracture. What can you do to increase your odds? A biggy is genetics-Did your mother have fractures? That really ran up my odds. Now my Mom could have had secondary causes for her Osteo but they didn't have the tools then. My grandmother was diabetic tho my mom wasn't. There are still those unknowns.

You can change the data in the FRAX and run it again. What is the effect of changing the BMD number assuming you start doing Forteo? What about your BMI-losing weight? What about no drinking or smoking? What can you do to better your odds? That is, if you want to.

Hope this helps

Ed

Tinkerr

Hello,

I am writing an article for a major newspaper in Boston and I'm looking for comments on the usefulness of the FRAX tool. I have lots of doctors and few patients in my story.

If you are interested or need more information, please contact me at tinkerr@bu.edu or check out my work at www.tinkerready.com

Thanks so much.

Tinker Ready
www.tinkerready.com
Freelance journalist
Cambridge, MA

jillybean74

If the 10 year probability of a hip fracture is greater than or equal to 3% or the 10 yr prob. of a major osteoporotic fracture is greater than or equal to 20%, then that is significant and treatment should be started.

Eamenard

Dear Jillybean
Well, mine is 29%(major) and 17%(hip) and I'm just cruising along. I've added calcium to my diet and taking a diuretic for urine calcium loss. I do Yogo 3 times a week doing all the twists and bends that my body will allow and walk and do some minor weight training.

You see, I don't like the treatment options and think that the DEXA thing only tells part of the story, Bone quality is not measured. So I'm waiting to have the first fracture. The odds are in my favor anyhow as I look at it a different way. I have a 70% chance of not having a fracture in 10 years. Taking biophosphates and changing the basic bone structure is a sure way to change the good bone to an unknown bone.

But I appreciate your concern. I poped over the handlebars of my bike several weeks back and ended up with a rib pain but nothing broken so think I'm in a good place.

Gatekeeper

How does one figure mother with fracture? My mother had a neck fracture... after a car accident. Does that count as having one? I was figuring fractures based on doing something that wouldn't normally cause a normal person to fracture. Say if she tripped and fell to the ground w/o hitting something on the way down and something broke... that would be an osteo fracture.

Eamenard

Dear Gatekeeper
You have got it right. Nonimpact fractures are the ones that count. My Mother was broke the hip seemingly just going to the bathroom after an operation. Then she got scared and went to crutches just to be sure. Then she was breaking spine verterbrae. That was real pain for her. But she lived to 92 tho in a wheelchair later on. Now one can rationalize as to why she had this history. Was it diet, secondary causes, lack of excercise, or heriditary? Don't know. So how important is it anyway? FRAX had that data and so it was included as a parameter and it does influence the odds. They don't have the data to iinclude other factors such as diet and exercise so one can think about those as bettering ones odds which is what I'm doing.

karen698

Hi Y'all,

This is very confusing to me. My probability of a major osteoporatic break is 20% and a hip fracture is -.7%. However I broke my femur (in the middle) in 2004. How can that be?

Eamenard

Dear karen698

I think there must be a bug in the Frax program. Do a search on FRAX and try another tool. There are 3 or 4 that will turn up. Let me know if you still get a negative answer. One should Email the site and let them know that they have a problem. Negative factors are clearly an error and the program needs some tuning.

karen698

Dear Eamenard,

I think the problem is mine. I had my very first BMD in 1995. At that time my spine was T-1.90 and my hip was T-3.04. My last BMD was in 2007. The spine was T-.9 and the hip was T-1.8. The numbers indicate improvement, but they really misled me. In 2004 I fell and broke my femur. My hip T-score at that time was -1.8. Thankfully, I haven't had any fractures since '04. My next BMD will be in August as will be my second reclast infusion.

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